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Obama and Huckabee are confirmed winners in this presidential primary season. Both have legitimized their candidacies and for the moment momentum is clearly on their side. But and it is a big but, (no pun intended), if Huckabee is ultimately the Republican candidate, he will be a sitting duck for Obama. The rumor mill has already started on some blogs about the Huckabee campaign planning to go negative in SC. Ed Rollins it seems is the subject of the rumors based on conversations which were supposedly overheard in a small diner in Iowa. For once, I sincerely hope the information is erronous but considering the track record of some Republican strategists, I fear for the worst. Hillary may take NH but I don't believe at this time she will take SC. Is she does, it will be by the smallest of margins. After doing my research on Obama and reading his feel good speech over at Not Very Bright's blog, I have come to the conclusion that he has taken a page from a past president who inspired a generation of young activists, JFK. Not a bad idea especially if you consider the acrimony and anger over the past fifteen years involved in American politics. Clinton and Bush have been the objects of hatred fostered by extremist elements in the radical wings of their respective parties. Hillary has been and until proven otherwise is still my first choice as the winner of the Democrat Party nomination. The upcoming dogfight between the two camps will be interesting since Obama drew first blood and that can be a dangerous move considering his opponent. John Edwards may have finished second in Iowa but that won't hold for very long. Tonight cleared the table of all other candidates except for Hillary and Obama with Edwards trying to hold on but in the end, to no avail. Huckabee apparently tapped into the emotional side of the spectrum with evangelical voters and if it holds up which is becoming more and more likely in SC with tonights victory, he will either be the Republican candidate or have enough influence over whoever is to insure his agenda is included in the party platform. Unfortunately, the Mormon issue will probably play in his favor in SC just as Guliani's negative press about his private life will work against him. Unless history completely fails, the ultimate victor in SC will go on to be the Republican presidential candidate. If what Huckabee said about Obama is accurate, a race between the two will be nothing short of a total sweep by Obama. It seems that Obama is the person he admires most on the Democrat side since both of them share similar political ideologies. Taking into account Obama's rock star status with the young and his appeal to the more positive side with the older generation and his appeal with women voters, it will take a miracle for him to lose if he is the candidate. I believe the conventional wisdom that gives the Republican nominee a good chance to win the White House if Hillary is the Democrat choice but if Obama is the nominee, he will be elected with ease. If anything will bring the primary voters to his side, it will be a conviction of his ability to win the election in November. I am a little surprised that this has not been a more prevalent theme in his campaign. Yet, in a column writen by George Will on December 30, he explained more fully why Obama transcends the normal under-expectations of African Americans in politics especially in this presidential campaign. It was a very good read on the man and peels away some of the mystique of who he is. In the end, he is a man who refuses to let the status quo define him. Like Clinton, Obama has no foreign policy credentials and no experience with military matters and still the voters took a chance with Clinton over GWHB serving a second term. Remember we had just come from a successful campaign in the first Gulf War and the voters gave no free pass to Bush I for his victory there. I know my comments may ramble a little but this election is so much different that the past four. As has been mentioned, there is not one incumbent among the entire group unless you count Hillary. The race is still open to a surprise but again, conventional wisdom does not indicate a dark horse candidate suddenly appearing on the scene. We have the group we have and the choices are scary indeed. Based on events of today, if Hillary regains momentum and takes NH and SC, she will be the nominee. If not and Obama comes close in NH and takes SC, he will be the nominee. If Huckabee can continue to tap into the evangelical block and come close in NH and win in SC, he will be the Republican nominee. Otherwise, it will be a long drawn out fight between the frontrunners and there may be a surprise winner coming from the lower ranks of candidates. At this point, I have no clue as to who it will be and that alone is a little disconcerting because in the past since picking JFK the first time I have been pretty successful picking the candidates and ultimate winner early on. |