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What does it really mean?

by: Peddler

Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 01:10:28 AM EST


Obama and Huckabee are confirmed winners in this presidential primary season.  Both have legitimized their candidacies and for the moment momentum is clearly on their side.  But and it is a big but, (no pun intended), if Huckabee is ultimately the Republican candidate, he will be a sitting duck for Obama.  

The rumor mill has already started on some blogs about the Huckabee campaign planning to go negative in SC.  Ed Rollins it seems is the subject of the rumors based on conversations which were supposedly overheard in a small diner in Iowa.  For once, I sincerely hope the information is erronous but considering the track record of some Republican strategists, I fear for the worst.

Hillary may take NH but I don't believe at this time she will take SC.  Is she does, it will be by the smallest of margins.  After doing my research on Obama and reading his feel good speech over at Not Very Bright's blog, I have come to the conclusion that he has taken a page from a past president who inspired a generation of young activists, JFK.  Not a bad idea especially if you consider the acrimony and anger over the past fifteen years involved in American politics.  Clinton and Bush have been the objects of hatred fostered by extremist elements in the radical wings of their respective parties.

Hillary has been and until proven otherwise is still my first choice as the winner of the Democrat Party nomination.  The upcoming dogfight between the two camps will be interesting since Obama drew first blood and that can be a dangerous move considering his opponent.  John Edwards may have finished second in Iowa but that won't hold for very long.  Tonight cleared the table of all other candidates except for Hillary and Obama with Edwards trying to hold on but in the end, to no avail.

Huckabee apparently tapped into the emotional side of the spectrum with evangelical voters and if it holds up which is becoming more and more likely in SC with tonights victory, he will either be the Republican candidate or have enough influence over whoever is to insure his agenda is included in the party platform.  Unfortunately, the Mormon issue will probably play in his favor in SC just as Guliani's negative press about his private life will work against him.  Unless history completely fails, the ultimate victor in SC will go on to be the Republican presidential candidate.

If what Huckabee said about Obama is accurate, a race between the two will be nothing short of a total sweep by Obama.  It seems that Obama is the person he admires most on the Democrat side since both of them share similar political ideologies.  Taking into account Obama's rock star status with the young and his appeal to the more positive side with the older generation and his appeal with women voters, it will take a miracle for him to lose if he is the candidate.

I believe the conventional wisdom that gives the Republican nominee a good chance to win the White House if Hillary is the Democrat choice but if Obama is the nominee, he will be elected with ease.  If anything will bring the primary voters to his side, it will be a conviction of his ability to win the election in November.  I am a little surprised that this has not been a more prevalent theme in his campaign.  Yet, in a column writen by George Will on December 30, he explained more fully why Obama transcends the normal under-expectations of African Americans in politics especially in this presidential campaign.  It was a very good read on the man and peels away some of the mystique of who he is.  In the end, he is a man who refuses to let the status quo define him.  Like Clinton, Obama has no foreign policy credentials and no experience with military matters and still the voters took a chance with Clinton over GWHB serving a second term.  Remember we had just come from a successful campaign in the first Gulf War and the voters gave no free pass to Bush I for his victory there.

I know my comments may ramble a little but this election is so much different that the past four.  As has been mentioned, there is not one incumbent among the entire group unless you count Hillary.  The race is still open to a surprise but again, conventional wisdom does not indicate a dark horse candidate suddenly appearing on the scene.  We have the group we have and the choices are scary indeed.

Based on events of today, if Hillary regains momentum and takes NH and SC, she will be the nominee.  If not and Obama comes close in NH and takes SC, he will be the nominee.  If Huckabee can continue to tap into the evangelical block and come close in NH and win in SC, he will be the Republican nominee.  Otherwise, it will be a long drawn out fight between the frontrunners and there may be a surprise winner coming from the lower ranks of candidates.  At this point, I have no clue as to who it will be and that alone is a little disconcerting because in the past since picking JFK the first time I have been pretty successful picking the candidates and ultimate winner early on.

Peddler :: What does it really mean?
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What does it really mean? (0.00 / 0)
I tend to agree with you to a point. I feel that Mike Huckabee is the man that can beat Obama. With his stand on the fair tax,I feel that when the people get educated about what it really is,he will pull many democrats to his side. Mike is also a person for change. Huckabee should take SC easily and is neck and neck with Guliani in Fl too. If you look at polls nationwide Huckabee is right up there in most states. If Huckabee pulls off Fl then Guliani will be history. I, for one am a democrat that fully supports Mike Huckabee this time around.

Fred and the four RINO's (0.00 / 0)
It is very sad when Republicans can no longer see through left-wing liberal garbage. McCain, Romney, Giuliani and Huckabee, in years past, would not even be listened to in the Republican party.
The four RINO's (Republican In Name Only) think the only way to beat the Democrats is to be just like them; how novel. Any of these four against a Democrat makes for no choice; it takes us once again to the "Lesser of two evils" election process". Any of the four RINO's will be slaughtered by the Democrats and here is why:
www.pinnaclecascade.com/huckabee.html
www.pinnaclecascade.com/giuliani.html
www.pinnaclecascade.com/mccain.html
www.pinnaclecascade.com/romney.html
George Bush's quasi-conservative politics have dug a tremendous hole for Republicans. Now this new batch of "left-wing" conservatives think they are going to be the vanguards of political change by being Democrats.
The only clear conservative in the Republican race is Fred Thompson:
www.pinnaclecascade.com/

momentum... (0.00 / 0)
So, was it close enough in NH?  I think it was.  Basically a tie.  And if you look at the numbers, Obama was down 10 points a week ago.  So this is really a huge victory for him.

religion in this politcal election (0.00 / 0)
Hi-

You said, "Unfortunately, the Mormon issue will probably play in his favor in SC just as Guliani's negative press about his private life will work against him."  I am anxious to see if that will be the case.

I know you have been following the recent happenings of the election, and I thought that with all the news going on in SC and the increase in discussion concerning politics and religion, you may be interested in an independent film coming out titled: "Article VI: Faith, Politics, America." Perhaps this would be for a good post or discussion. It has a very provocative trailer that quickly and pointedly raises many of the big questions that politicians and others have been wrestling with in recent years.

Check out the trailer:

http://www.articlevithemovie.c...

The film was directed by Bryan Hall and Jack Donaldson. It is an intense discussion of the role of faith in politics. The title is taken from Article Six of the United States Constitution: "no religious Test shall ever be required as a Qualification to any Office or public Trust under the United States.

Let me know what you think!


Out of retirement (for a moment or two) (0.00 / 0)
I went to the link and can't wait to see the movie in its entirety.  Thanks for the info.  I do think the people of SC are a little more sophisticated than given credit.  True, we have the distinction of being one of the dirtiest campaigning states around but in the end, I think our voters have a fairly good grasp on the issues and they use a filter to seperate the pepper from the fly poop especially when it comes to a candidate overtly using religion as a campaign theme.  I may be entirely wrong but I have to go on personal experience with like minded conservatives like me.

[ Parent ]
Fred Thompson is the only choice (0.00 / 0)
Fred Thompson is the only real conservative running. He is a federalist and believes in limited government. He supports the 2nd Amendment and the rest of the Constitution. He understands economics and why the American people should be deciding how to spend their money, not having Washington spend it for them. He is strong on national defense and understand the threat caused by global terrorism. He is pro-life and always has been.

Huckabee is RINO. Yes, he has part of the puzzle as a strong social conservative, but he is NOT a federalist and (just like the democrats) believes government is the answer when it is really the problem!

Fred Thompson is the conservative choice, hands down!


Free viewings of the film Article VI: Faith, Politics, America (0.00 / 0)
They are streaming the video for free today and tomorrow only! Jan 18 and 19!

http://www.articlevithemovie.com/

Check it out!


What does it really mean? (0.00 / 0)
It's hard to believe Huckabee's soundbites are passing for substance. Why does he avoid discussing his positions on the issues? Well, look at his record on illegal immigration, higher taxes and bigger government, and belief that our foreign policy is arrogant instead of necessary. Plus now he's been bragging in Michigan about his close ties to the unions. Also, he said this in Michigan, "[Some of my opponents] do not want to change the Constitution, but I believe it's a lot easier to change the Constitution than it would be to change the word of the living God, and that's what we need to do is to amend the Constitution so it's in God's standards rather than try to change God's standards.

I'm a God fearing Christian myself, but shouldn't someone inform him the Constitution is based on God's laws and of that little thing called the First Ammendment, umm seperation of church and state. Our forefathers included this based on their experience with the overbearing influence of the Protestant Church in England's government.

Fred Thompson is the real deal, the only candidate with a true conservative position on all the issues. The only one who openly invites you to look at his past. The only one who will look you straight in the eye and tell you how it really is, good or bad, straightup. The only one that can be trusted to stand tall, and have the resolve to do what is necessary to protect America.

Here's some links:

http://www.fred08.com/index.aspx

http://www.fred08.com/Principl...

http://www.independentmail.com...

http://www.pinnaclecascade.com...

http://vets4fred.net/

I have to put my trust for the future of our national security in a man who speaks with substance, who stands on his principles, who looks you in the eye and tells you straightforward what's on his mind. Fred Thompson is this man. He's well thought out, a great communicator, and rock solid on his principles. Go to Fred08.com and look around at his white papers and speeches to make up your own mind. Then tell me who you think should lead us through these dangerous and uncertain times as President and Commander-in-Chief for the next 8 years, Fred Thompson.


why dont you listen to MLKlll?? (0.00 / 0)
http://www.johnedwards.com/new...

   January 20, 2008

   The Honorable John R. Edwards

   410 Market Street

   Suite 400

   Chapel Hill, NC 27516

   Dear Senator Edwards:

   It was good meeting with you yesterday and discussing my father's legacy. On the day when the nation will honor my father, I wanted to follow up with a personal note.

   There has been, and will continue to be, a lot of back and forth in the political arena over my father's legacy. It is a commentary on the breadth and depth of his impact that so many people want to claim his legacy. I am concerned that we do not blur the lines and obscure the truth about what he stood for: speaking up for justice for those who have no voice.

   I appreciate that on the major issues of health care, the environment, and the economy, you have framed the issues for what they are - a struggle for justice. And, you have almost single-handedly made poverty an issue in this election.

   You know as well as anyone that the 37 million people living in poverty have no voice in our system. They don't have lobbyists in Washington and they don't get to go to lunch with members of Congress. Speaking up for them is not politically convenient. But, it is the right thing to do.

   I am disturbed by how little attention the topic of economic justice has received during this campaign. I want to challenge all candidates to follow your lead, and speak up loudly and forcefully on the issue of economic justice in America.

   From our conversation yesterday, I know this is personal for you. I know you know what it means to come from nothing. I know you know what it means to get the opportunities you need to build a better life. And, I know you know that injustice is alive and well in America, because millions of people will never get the same opportunities you had.

   I believe that now, more than ever, we need a leader who wakes up every morning with the knowledge of that injustice in the forefront of their minds, and who knows that when we commit ourselves to a cause as a nation, we can make major strides in our own lifetimes. My father was not driven by an illusory vision of a perfect society. He was driven by the certain knowledge that when people of good faith and strong principles commit to making things better, we can change hearts, we can change minds, and we can change lives.

   So, I urge you: keep going. Ignore the pundits, who think this is a horserace, not a fight for justice. My dad was a fighter. As a friend and a believer in my father's words that injustice anywhere is a threat to justice everywhere, I say to you: keep going. Keep fighting. My father would be proud.

   Sincerely,

   Martin L. King, III



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